### It's a bit of a gamble as to.....>

US TSYS/SUPPLY: ### It's a bit of a gamble as to whether US Tsy at Wed 8:30am ET

August Tsy refunding 3/10/30Y auction announcement will detail where it might

raise auction sizes in future. That occurs as Fed will start to run off its huge

$4.5 Trln balance sheet hldngs of Tsys/MBS in near future; it cld announce plan

in Sep, start in Oct in theory. Tsy then must start replacing Tsys that Fed lets

mature/run off. (Tsy said Mon it will borrow $96B in 3Q assuming $115B balance. 

- POV: But it's likely Tsy may detail detailing where on Tsy curve it will

rai)se future auction sizes. For one thing, the debt ceiling issue still looms

over bond mkt so until Tsy has clarity on that, it may not want to worry

investors. So it may more likely be November Tsy refunding before Tsy details

where it will raise auction sizes. 

- A trader said "there will be questions" Wed on debt ceiling but "auction sizes

shd be left unchanged." He believed Aug refunding wld not hold "any major

surprises" and auction size change news wld not be until Nov., by which time

debt ceiling likely solved as urgency peaks early Oct. He expected Tsy wld raise

10Y, 30Y auctn sizes.