J.P.Morgan: 5-Year TIPS Below Fair Value For First Time Since Sep

J.P.Morgan note that “in the TIPS space, front-end breakevens continued to narrow: 5-year TIPS breakevens have tightened 46bp from the highs seen two weeks ago and are now below our fair value estimates for the first time since September. At this point, the cheapness to fair value is still too modest to warrant a strong recommendation and uncertainty around the oil outlook amid concerns around a slowdown in mobility and the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting justifies the discount, but we see short-term upside risks for inflation. Conditional on more visibility on the path of the new COVID variant and the energy part of the equation, our bias would be for wider breakevens through the end of Q122.”