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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI POLITICAL RISK - Thune Defends Two-Step 2025 Agenda
MNI US MARKETS ANALYSIS - EUR Steadies Ahead of ECB
J.P. Morgan Mid Year FX Update.
The US bank expects the USD to stay elevated, amid yield differentials and lingering exceptionalism. See below for more details.
J.P. Morgan: "Dollar to stay elevated on USD’s improving yield advantage and lingering exceptionalism; US elections add upside risks. Yield compression remains a key theme; risk-reward in global carry is unattractive, but G10 carry is more resilient. Funders to underperform tactically, but tariff risk/ lower yields create uncertainty. Housing may provide relief for early-cutter FX. Recession risk is well-priced in lower-yielders but not in high-yielders.
Macro Trade Recommendations: Maintain USD length vs EUR, CNH, but tactically as US exceptionalism has moderated but not exhausted. Be surgical with policy r.v. – long NOK vs SEK, EUR and AUD vs NZD. Case against JPY reversion remains compelling; be tactical around intervention risks (take profit AUD/JPY).
Emerging Markets FX: Stay neutral ahead of the US elections amid unresolved macro uncertainties. Favour idiosyncratic carry and FX with attractive valuations. Bullish picks are TRY, INR, MXN, UYU, PHP; Bearish on CZK, CNH, CLP, COP.
FX Derivatives: FX vol unlikely to trend higher despite US elections as firm growth, policy easing and USD length stymies outsized vol pickups. H2 themes: (a) preference for gamma over vol surface; (b) cheap US election hedges; (c) fading European risk premium; (d) RV within the Yen vol complex; (e) defensive long-end vol spreads. Increase elections exposure via 9m USD/CNH digi RR.
FX Technicals: EUR/USD to break below 1.04 in 2H24. USD/JPY looks like a mature bull cycle, but remains intact; watch for a trend reversal in the second half. AUD/USD to pressure broader range support in the months ahead."
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.