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J.P.Morgan Pull Forward ECB Cut Timing, Look For June As First Step Lower

ECB VIEW

J.P.Morgan write “we had the first cut in September with risks skewed towards June/July. We still feel that June to September is the right timeframe. But to better balance the risks, we now pull forward the first cut to June. We assume that the ECB skips July and then starts back-to-back cuts in September.”

  • “This implies 100bp of cuts in 2024 (vs the 75bp we had before) and that rates still reach 2% around mid-2025. We continue to think that March is unlikely for a first cut and that April requires a material disappointment on growth that also causes cracks in the labour market. Recent labour market data have tempered the latter risk and therefore we still see an April cut as unlikely.”
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
HomepageEuropean Central Bank (ECB) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
HomepageEuropean Central Bank (ECB) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

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