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J.P. Morgan Stays UW PHP FX

PHP

"Since November PHP has outperformed currencies with current account surpluses including TWD, CNH, and IDR, and is no longer cheap. In fact, USD/PHP has sold off in the last three months twice as much as its historical beta to DXY implied. Similarly, the USD/PHP has also sold off more than expected given its historical beta to USD/CNH. Such price action would be warranted if the macro outlook for the Philippines had materially improved, but we think the market is excessively optimistic here. The central bank has also flagged the peso’s strength, with the governor noting that “excessive appreciation is bad for the economy” and indicated that it would rebuild reserves opportunistically. We remain underweight PHP (1%) in our GBI-EM portfolio, against an overweight (1%) in THB."

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