J.P.Morgan Think 5s Will Require Concession For Smooth Auction

J.P.Morgan note that Tuesday will see the Treasury "auction $61bn 5-year notes, $2bn larger in size than last month. Five-year yields rose as much as 12bp in the weeks following the previous 5-year auction, supported by increased fiscal stimulus and growth expectations in the wake of the Georgia Senate runoff elections, but have since retraced most of this move. Turning to relative value, the 5-year sector appears fairly valued versus the wings after adjusting for the level of rates and the shape of the curve. The WI 5-year roll opened at +1.375bp, in line with our fair value estimate, and is still trading at that level. With 5-year yields reversing most of their rise in mid-January and sitting below their 1-month average, we think this auction will require a concession to underwrite smoothly."