J.P.Morgan Weigh Up The Broader Supply & Demand Dynamics In '22

J.P.Morgan note that their "analysis implies a near $3.1tn reduction in global bond demand in 2022 relative to 2021, larger than the reduction in 2021 relative to 2020. However, with bond supply also declining by $2.3tn in 2022 relative to 2021, we look for $0.8tn deterioration in the demand/supply balance for 2022, around half of this year's deterioration. This, in turn, implies upward pressure on bond yields of around 20bp-25bp based on the relationship between annual changes in excess supply and Global Agg bond index yields over the past decade, compared to around 45bp-50bp of upward pressure in 2021. Indeed, Global Agg bond index yields have risen by around 49bp YTD, in line with this relationship."