Jan Export Beat Should Support Resilient NEER Backdrop

Singapore Jan export figures were stronger than expected. In m/m terms exports rose 2.3% against a 0.5% forecast and -1.7% prior (originally reported as a -2.8% fall). In y/y terms, we rose 16.8%, against a 4.3% forecast and -1.5% prior. This is the strongest y/y pace since early 2022. Electronic exports rose 0.7% y/y, versus -11.7% prior. This is first positive print since Q3 2022 for this series in y/y terms.

• Jan last year marked a trough point for y/y export momentum, hence base effects likely aided the bounce. Still, the detail showed fairly broad based gains in terms of the sub components, albeit with some from a low base.
• The electronic sub components were mostly up in m/m terms, but the large shift came from non-electronic exports, with chemical exports rising strongly in the m/m. Non-electronic exports were +21.2% y/y versus +1.4% in Dec.
• This improvement is line with better trends seen in other Asian export orientated economies like South Korea and Taiwan.
• For the MAS it forms part of a resilient growth backdrop, with Q4 growth GDP figures showing continued growth through the tail end of last year.
• The chart below plots export growth trends (pushed 6 months forward) against the SGD NEER in y/y terms. The picture paints a resilient NEER backdrop, all else equal.

Fig 1: SGD NEER Versus Export Growth Trend (6 Months Forward)

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg