Jansa's SDS Retain Lead But Opposition Coalition Could Oust PM In 2022

Latest polling from Slovenia shows Prime Minister Janesz Jansa's conservative populist Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) retaining an overall lead with 28% support among decided voters. However, Jansa's days as PM may be numbered ahead of the next election (due by 5 June 2022 at the latest), with an alliance of opposition parties having a combined vote share well in excess of the SDS. An alliance of the centre-left Social Democrats (SD), socialist The Left (Levica), centrist List of Marjan Sarec (LMS), and social liberal Party of Alenka Bratusek (SAB) carries a combined 44% support.

• Mediana poll: SDS: 28%, SD: 17% (+3), Levica: 13%, LMŠ: 8% (-6), New Slovenia-Christian Democrats (NSi): 8%, SAB: 6% (-1), Slovenian National Party (SNS): 4% (+3), Greens (ZS): 3% (+1), Pirates: 2% (-3), Slovenian People's Party (SLS): 2% (-1), Modern Centre Party (SMC): 2% (+1). +/- vs. 4-7 October Sample size: 712
• Jansa's populist governing style and outspoken/controversial nature on social media have made him a hero for Europe's populist right, but has galvanized opposition to his administration, brining together a broad swath of parties. As such, while such an electoral alliance may be able to oust Jansa from power in 2022, there is no guarantee of the longevity of any gov't given the dispirate political parties involved.