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January GDP Data Due at 0700 GMT

UK DATA
MNI (London)

The January run of UK data is expected to reveal a relatively bleak start to the year, with GDP seen edging up +0.1% m/m after the -0.5% m/m December contraction.

  • This modest uptick is likely to be services-driven as IP and manufacturing are projected to be largely flat.
  • Consensus expects services to expand by +0.3% m/m in January after the -0.8% m/m fall in December (which was impacted by the cold weather conditions).
  • So far this quarter, January labour market data and the +0.5 m/m uptick in retail sales and the near five-point jump in the February services PMI have all been positive developments.
  • As such, UK GDP forecasts remain geared towards a more moderate recession, with February BOE growth forecasts anticipating a -0.1% Q/Q contraction for Q1. With the services PMI now back in expansive territory, it appears that robust services demand may help bolster Q1 growth.
DataHomepagemarkets-real-timeData BulletBank Of England (BOE) Market NewsBulletUKMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
DataHomepagemarkets-real-timeData BulletBank Of England (BOE) Market NewsBulletUKMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

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