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January IPCA Inflation & December Retail Sales Data Scheduled

BRAZIL
  • IPCA inflation is expected to print at +0.56% M/m in January closely aligned to the 0.55% increase in the mid-month reading. Analysts note that there may be minor, seasonal declines in some prices such as apparel. Elsewhere, food inflation likely ticked down, while transportation costs probably accelerated.
    • Looking forward, base effects will likely drive a sharper decline in year-over-year inflation between March and June, and a rise from July onward. Given the BCB’s messaging around the deterioration of medium and longer-term inflation expectations, the month-on-month readings of underlying inflation will be in focus for assessing the rate outlook going forward.
    • Retail sales data for December will also be published. Core sales should be weak amid tighter financial conditions and relatively low consumer confidence.
  • Data is due at 1200GMT/0900 Local/0700ET:
    • Jan. IBGE Inflation IPCA M/m, est. 0.56%, prior 0.62%
    • Jan. IBGE Inflation IPCA Y/y, est. 5.81%, prior 5.79%
    • Dec. Retail Sales M/m, est. -0.8%, prior -0.6%
    • Dec. Retail Sales Y/y, est. 2.7%, prior 1.5%

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