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JAPAN DATA: Exports & Imports Post Modest Upside Surprise

JAPAN DATA
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Japan exports rose 3.1%y/y in Oct, above market expectations of a 1.0% gain. The prior outcome was -1.7% in y/y terms. Some tick up is not surprising given other trends in export linked economies in North East Asia. The chart below plots export growth for Japan (the red line, along with China, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan. Only Singapore looks weaker, relative to the other country trends. 

  • Exports may have received some benefit due to front loading ahead of the US election, although exports to the US were still -6.2%y/y. Exports to the EU were -11.3%y/y, while to the China rose +1.5%y/y and were positive to Asia more broadly.
  • Imports rose 0.4%y/y, versus a -1.9%y/y contraction. This modest upside surprise left trade positions in deficit and slightly wider than forecast. We were at -¥461.2bn, which was consistent with recent trends. 

Fig 1: Japan Export Growth (red line) Firms Modestly In Oct 

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Japan exports rose 3.1%y/y in Oct, above market expectations of a 1.0% gain. The prior outcome was -1.7% in y/y terms. Some tick up is not surprising given other trends in export linked economies in North East Asia. The chart below plots export growth for Japan (the red line, along with China, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan. Only Singapore looks weaker, relative to the other country trends. 

  • Exports may have received some benefit due to front loading ahead of the US election, although exports to the US were still -6.2%y/y. Exports to the EU were -11.3%y/y, while to the China rose +1.5%y/y and were positive to Asia more broadly.
  • Imports rose 0.4%y/y, versus a -1.9%y/y contraction. This modest upside surprise left trade positions in deficit and slightly wider than forecast. We were at -¥461.2bn, which was consistent with recent trends. 

Fig 1: Japan Export Growth (red line) Firms Modestly In Oct 

Keep reading...Show less