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JAPAN DATA: Jobless Rate Back To Cycle Lows, But Employment Growth Eases

JAPAN DATA
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The Japan Sep jobless rate ticked down to 2.4%, versus 2.5% forecast, which was also the August outcome. This leaves the jobless rate back at cycle lows (Jan 2024 also recorded a 2.4% rate), suggesting tight labour market conditions prevail. The job to applicant ratio also ticked up to 1.24 (versus 1.23 forecast), although it remains within recent ranges, see the chart below (this series is the white line and inverted on the chart, the jobless rate is orange).

  • The detail was slightly less upbeat. The participation rate edged down to 63.5% from 63.6%, while the total number of people employed fell 90k m/m, after a strong 250k rise in the prior month. The y/y pace of total people employed was back to 0.38%, from 0.62% in August. The Sep pace was just below the average for the past 12 months.
  • Job offers were up 0.1% m/m, after falling for the 3 prior months. Still, job offers remain -3.9% in y/y terms. 

Fig 1: Japan Labour Market Remains Tight 

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The Japan Sep jobless rate ticked down to 2.4%, versus 2.5% forecast, which was also the August outcome. This leaves the jobless rate back at cycle lows (Jan 2024 also recorded a 2.4% rate), suggesting tight labour market conditions prevail. The job to applicant ratio also ticked up to 1.24 (versus 1.23 forecast), although it remains within recent ranges, see the chart below (this series is the white line and inverted on the chart, the jobless rate is orange).

  • The detail was slightly less upbeat. The participation rate edged down to 63.5% from 63.6%, while the total number of people employed fell 90k m/m, after a strong 250k rise in the prior month. The y/y pace of total people employed was back to 0.38%, from 0.62% in August. The Sep pace was just below the average for the past 12 months.
  • Job offers were up 0.1% m/m, after falling for the 3 prior months. Still, job offers remain -3.9% in y/y terms. 

Fig 1: Japan Labour Market Remains Tight