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JAPAN DATA: Y/Y Earnings & Spending Edged Down In August

JAPAN DATA
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Japan labour cash earnings for August were reasonably close to expectations. The headline nominal measure rose 3.0%y/y against a 2.9% forecast and a 3.4% July outcome. In real terms we were -0.6%y/y, against a 0.5% forecast and prior 0.3%. 

  • Same sample base cash earnings were 3.1% y/y, against a 4.7% prior outcome (the consensus was 3.2%). On scheduled full-time pay, we were 2.9%y/y in same base terms, against a 3.0% forecast, which was also the prior outcome.
  • In terms of the detail, contracted earnings were 3.0%y/y, while bonus payments were 2.7% y/y, down from the 6.6% pace seen in July.
  • On the same sample basis, part time payments picked up to 4.1% y/y, 3.1%, while full time edged down.
  • Employment was 1.2% y/y, same as July. Hours worked were -0.6% y/y, against a 0.3% July outcome.  
  • Real household spending was down -1.9% y/y, not as much as forecast (-2.6%). The chart below plots spending (white line) and real cash earnings in y/y terms. Note spending was up 2.0% in m/m terms. Real incomes rose 2% y/y, nominal income was up 5.6%y/y.
  • The trends around labour cash earnings and spending still appear positive, albeit somewhat volatile in y/y terms. It's unlikely to shift near term BoJ thinking, while the new Japanese government remains focused on driving positive real wage gains. 

Fig 1: Japan Labour Earnings & Spending Pulled Back In August 

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Japan labour cash earnings for August were reasonably close to expectations. The headline nominal measure rose 3.0%y/y against a 2.9% forecast and a 3.4% July outcome. In real terms we were -0.6%y/y, against a 0.5% forecast and prior 0.3%. 

  • Same sample base cash earnings were 3.1% y/y, against a 4.7% prior outcome (the consensus was 3.2%). On scheduled full-time pay, we were 2.9%y/y in same base terms, against a 3.0% forecast, which was also the prior outcome.
  • In terms of the detail, contracted earnings were 3.0%y/y, while bonus payments were 2.7% y/y, down from the 6.6% pace seen in July.
  • On the same sample basis, part time payments picked up to 4.1% y/y, 3.1%, while full time edged down.
  • Employment was 1.2% y/y, same as July. Hours worked were -0.6% y/y, against a 0.3% July outcome.  
  • Real household spending was down -1.9% y/y, not as much as forecast (-2.6%). The chart below plots spending (white line) and real cash earnings in y/y terms. Note spending was up 2.0% in m/m terms. Real incomes rose 2% y/y, nominal income was up 5.6%y/y.
  • The trends around labour cash earnings and spending still appear positive, albeit somewhat volatile in y/y terms. It's unlikely to shift near term BoJ thinking, while the new Japanese government remains focused on driving positive real wage gains. 

Fig 1: Japan Labour Earnings & Spending Pulled Back In August 

Keep reading...Show less