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Japan LNG Imports to Stabilize in 2024 Amid Uncertain Nuclear Timings: ICIS

LNG

Japanese LNG imports are expected to stabilize in 2024 but with downward pressure from nuclear restarts according to ICIS.

  • A combination of mild weather through to mid-February and high LNG stocks weigh on demand expectations in H1 2024 with an inventory surplus previously taking months to clear. LNG storage for power generation increased to just below 2023 levels at 2.58m tonnes in the week to 14 January but is very high compared to previous years.
  • Week 2 and 3 power consumption is down 5% from the 2018-22 average with little sign of recovery despite edging slightly higher in the current week.
  • Nuclear generation is forecast to increase by 17% in 2024 after a 50% growth in 2023 to a post-Fukushima high above 80TWh. Growth could fall to 5% if planned restarts of Onagawa 2 and Shimane 2 are delayed to next year. The uncertain timing is an upside risk.
  • Industrial indices remain in contraction territory, but with some rebound expected in 2024.


Source: ICIS

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