Jefferies economist Tom Simons........>

US DATA REACT: Jefferies economist Tom Simons noted September retail sales "rose

1.6%. Ex-autos, retail sales rose 1.0%. Control group sales rose 0.4%." He said

"headline September retail sales" is "a bit weaker than expected" but "still a

very strong number on an outright basis and the detail under the hood is a bit

better than expected. Market consensus was for a 1.7% rise in overall retail

sales. Ex-autos, the data was better than expectations, as the consensus call

was for a 0.9% increase. Expectations on the control group sales were for a rise

of 0.4%, so control group sales were right on consensus."

- He adds retail sales "bottom line" is that "consumer spending remains erratic,

but was quite robust in September. This month's data is heavily influenced by

the hurricanes that hit the Gulf States in August and September, specifically

via a big increase in gasoline prices and a surge in auto sales as consumers

replaced vehicles damaged by the storms. September was a solid month, but it

will be very important to see if consumers can continue this momentum in the

months ahead."