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Jefferies Quicktake on Tapering, Policy, Labor

Jefferies Chief Economist Aneta Markowska and Money Market Economist Thomas Simons looking for a quicker asset purchase tapering than currently expected as well as two hikes in 2022.
  • With inflation pressures mounting, we expect the Fed to respond by accelerating the taper at the December meeting and finishing by the end of March. This will make room for two hikes next year, most likely in September and December.
  • On Labor market, Markowska and Thomas "believe the US is entering the tightest labor market conditions since the 1950s. Thus, even after supply chain bottlenecks are cleared, inflation is unlikely to go back to 2% and is more likely to settle in a 2.5%-3% range."

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