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JGBS: Futures Stronger Overnight As US Tsys Rally Ahead Of Thanksgiving

JGBS
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In post-Tokyo trade, JGB futures are stronger, +22 compared to settlement levels, after US tsys rallied on the last full trading day of November. Wall Street closed with modest losses, and the dollar slumped too.

  • US yields finished 3-5bps lower on the day, with the 7-year leading the gains following a strong auction. The strong 7Y auction marked a third solid auction for the front-loaded week.
  • Yesterday’s US data deluge was mixed but ultimately quite close to consensus. Still, it offered a reminder that core PCE inflation remains on track to overshoot median FOMC projections for Q4, while super core PCE inflation has stabilised at rates still uncomfortably above the 2% target.
  • Fed Funds implied rates were little changed. Cumulative cuts from 4.58% effective: 16bp Dec, 22bp Jan, 35bp Mar and 52bp June.
  • Market operating hours over Thanksgiving: Cash Tsys: Thursday, Nov 28: closed, Friday, Nov 29, shortened session closing at 14:00 NY/13:00 Chicago. Tsy futures: Thursday, Nov 28: goes into pre-open (early close, no settlement) at 13:00 NY/12:00 Chicago, Friday, Nov 29: Early close at 13:15 NY/12:15 Chicago.
  • Today, the local calendar will see Weekly International Investment Flow data alongside BOJ Rinban operations covering 3-25-year and Inflation-Indexed JGBs. Tomorrow delivers a busier schedule headlined by Tokyo Nov CPI.
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In post-Tokyo trade, JGB futures are stronger, +22 compared to settlement levels, after US tsys rallied on the last full trading day of November. Wall Street closed with modest losses, and the dollar slumped too.

  • US yields finished 3-5bps lower on the day, with the 7-year leading the gains following a strong auction. The strong 7Y auction marked a third solid auction for the front-loaded week.
  • Yesterday’s US data deluge was mixed but ultimately quite close to consensus. Still, it offered a reminder that core PCE inflation remains on track to overshoot median FOMC projections for Q4, while super core PCE inflation has stabilised at rates still uncomfortably above the 2% target.
  • Fed Funds implied rates were little changed. Cumulative cuts from 4.58% effective: 16bp Dec, 22bp Jan, 35bp Mar and 52bp June.
  • Market operating hours over Thanksgiving: Cash Tsys: Thursday, Nov 28: closed, Friday, Nov 29, shortened session closing at 14:00 NY/13:00 Chicago. Tsy futures: Thursday, Nov 28: goes into pre-open (early close, no settlement) at 13:00 NY/12:00 Chicago, Friday, Nov 29: Early close at 13:15 NY/12:15 Chicago.
  • Today, the local calendar will see Weekly International Investment Flow data alongside BOJ Rinban operations covering 3-25-year and Inflation-Indexed JGBs. Tomorrow delivers a busier schedule headlined by Tokyo Nov CPI.