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JKM-TTF Spread Falls as TTF Extends Rally

NATURAL GAS

The JKM-TTF spread is narrowing as TTF rallies amid supply concerns from increasing tensions between Russia and Ukraine and with more upcoming Norwegian maintenance. TTF front month is extending the rally towards the high of 34.3€/MWh seen on 26 July despite high gas storage levels.

  • EON have warned that Europe’s energy market is still at risk of spiking prices this winter due to the missing Russian gas supply.
  • Ormen Lange gas works with a capacity reduction of 19.3mcm/d have been delayed by 4 days to Aug 19 according to Gassco this morning.
  • The front month JKM-TTF spread is down to 0.15$/mmbtu today compared to a recent high of +2.9$/mmbtu on 28 July. Competition for LNG supplies from Asia is an upside risk for prices this winter along with the risk of cold weather.
  • The US netback to Asia in September was at $7.04/MMBtu, and $8.29/MMBtu for October, compared to $6.42/MMBtu and $7.58/MMBtu to Europe according to Bloomberg before the TTF rally today.
  • TTF SEP 23 up 7.3% at 33.34€/MWh
  • TTF WIN 23 up 3% at 47.3€/MWh
  • TTF SUM 24 up 1.4% at 49.29€/MWh
  • TTF WIN 24 up 2% at 53.57€/MWh
  • JKM Sep 23 down -0.2% at 10.96$/mmbtu
  • JKM-TTF Sep 23 down -0.9$/mmbtu at 0.16$/mmbtu

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