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Jobless Claims Broadly In Line Amidst Continued Holiday Volatility

US DATA
  • Initial jobless claims increased to a seasonally adjusted 218k (cons 210k) in the week to Dec 23 after a minimally upward revised 206k (initial 205k).
  • It left the four-week moving average at 212k, at the lowest since late October and below the 218k averaged through 2019 for context.
  • At a time of heightened seasonal volatility, there doesn’t look to be any standout drivers from some of the typical states seen earlier this year.
  • Continuing claims meanwhile were in line, rising to a seasonally adjusted 1875k (cons 1875k) in the week to Dec 16 from a downward revised 1861k (initial 1865k).
  • Seasonally adjusted continuing claims have stabilized around this level for four weeks now after a series of strong increases that culminated in a pop to a recent high of 1925k in mid-Nov. That high marked the payrolls reference period for the November report, leaving a favorable comparison for next week’s December print.

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