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Jobless Claims See Another Week Ruling Out Further Deterioration

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  • Weekly jobless claims again ruled out a sharper labor market deterioration, especially with continuing claims pulling back from recent highs (albeit still relatively elevated on a NSA basis).
  • Initial jobless claims dipped to 227k (sa, cons 230k) in the week to Aug 31 after a marginally upward revised 232k (initial 231k).
  • The four-week moving average fell further to 230k (-2k) having recently peaked at 241k in early Aug. It compares increasingly favorably with the 234k the week before Hurricane Beryl.
  • Continuing claims saw a larger surprise lower at 1838k (sa, cons 1867k) in the week to Aug 24 after a downward revised 1860k (initial 1868k).
  • It’s the lowest since mid-June as it pulls back from what had been levels close to the recent high of 1871k from Jul 27 that marked the highest since Nov 2021.
  • Note that non-seasonally adjusted continuing claims look in keeping with recent themes, i.e. still sitting right at the top end of the years shortly before the pandemic but not pushing relatively higher.
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  • Weekly jobless claims again ruled out a sharper labor market deterioration, especially with continuing claims pulling back from recent highs (albeit still relatively elevated on a NSA basis).
  • Initial jobless claims dipped to 227k (sa, cons 230k) in the week to Aug 31 after a marginally upward revised 232k (initial 231k).
  • The four-week moving average fell further to 230k (-2k) having recently peaked at 241k in early Aug. It compares increasingly favorably with the 234k the week before Hurricane Beryl.
  • Continuing claims saw a larger surprise lower at 1838k (sa, cons 1867k) in the week to Aug 24 after a downward revised 1860k (initial 1868k).
  • It’s the lowest since mid-June as it pulls back from what had been levels close to the recent high of 1871k from Jul 27 that marked the highest since Nov 2021.
  • Note that non-seasonally adjusted continuing claims look in keeping with recent themes, i.e. still sitting right at the top end of the years shortly before the pandemic but not pushing relatively higher.