US DATA
Initial and continuing claims surprised lower, neither for payrolls reference periods although initial is just one week away. The combination continues to point to a low layoffs and no further deterioration in what had been a cooling in hiring conditions.
- Initial jobless claims were lower than expected at 220k (sa, cons 225k) in the week to Mar 8 after a marginally upward revised 222k (initial 221k).
- It’s a second week that downplays what had been a sharp increase to 242k back in the week to Feb 22.
- The four-week average meanwhile has drifted a little higher again to 226k for its highest since December but remains close to the 218k in 2019 and is still not showing any sign of significant acceleration in layoffs.
- There was a slight build in initial claims across Maryland, Virginia and Washington DC when trying to assess a federal government layoff angle (in addition to the deferred redundancy program that won’t show until Oct). Cumulative initial claims in those areas increased from 6.9k to 7.8k for the highest since early Feb although it’s still just about within typical seasonals ranges and continuing claims in those areas are comfortably within range.
- The -13k to 213k for national non-seasonally adjusted initial claims shrugged off that small rise in those three regions, in keeping with a typical seasonal pattern.
- Continuing claims meanwhile also surprised lower as they fell to 1870k (sa, cons 1888k) in the week to Mar 1 after an unrevised 1897k at what had been close to recent highs.
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