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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessJobs Data Thursday, Consensus Consistent With Easing Market
November employment data print on Thursday and Bloomberg consensus expects there to be 11.5k new jobs. Given October’s higher-than-expected 55k, it is worth looking at the 2 month average and consensus would bring it to 33.3k, only about 3k below the 2023 average. This would be consistent with a tight but easing labour market. The unemployment rate is assumed to rise 0.1pp to 3.8% with the participation rate falling 0.1pp to 66.9%. Outcomes in line with consensus are unlikely to move the RBA in either direction.
- In terms of employment, it is worth monitoring the split between full-time and part-time employment as the latter has been outpacing the former in recent months signalling less certainty in business’ labour needs.
- Jobs forecasts are in a wide range between -30k and +40k with most economists between flat and +25k. ANZ is expecting a 30k drop, whereas CBA is at +15k and Westpac +25k.
- The range of unemployment forecasts is 3.6% to 3.9% with most at 3.7% or 3.8%. ANZ and CBA both expect 3.8%, while Westpac is forecasting it to be steady at 3.7%.
- The youth unemployment rate will also be important to the RBA as it has highlighted it as a leading indicator of the rest of the labour market. It rose 2pp over the year to October.
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Why MNI
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