Jobs Data Thursday, Consensus Consistent With Easing Market

November employment data print on Thursday and Bloomberg consensus expects there to be 11.5k new jobs. Given October’s higher-than-expected 55k, it is worth looking at the 2 month average and consensus would bring it to 33.3k, only about 3k below the 2023 average. This would be consistent with a tight but easing labour market. The unemployment rate is assumed to rise 0.1pp to 3.8% with the participation rate falling 0.1pp to 66.9%. Outcomes in line with consensus are unlikely to move the RBA in either direction.

• In terms of employment, it is worth monitoring the split between full-time and part-time employment as the latter has been outpacing the former in recent months signalling less certainty in business’ labour needs.
• Jobs forecasts are in a wide range between -30k and +40k with most economists between flat and +25k. ANZ is expecting a 30k drop, whereas CBA is at +15k and Westpac +25k.
• The range of unemployment forecasts is 3.6% to 3.9% with most at 3.7% or 3.8%. ANZ and CBA both expect 3.8%, while Westpac is forecasting it to be steady at 3.7%.
• The youth unemployment rate will also be important to the RBA as it has highlighted it as a leading indicator of the rest of the labour market. It rose 2pp over the year to October.