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Jobs Report - Don’t Be Surprised By Known Revisions

  • The January labour report hits at 0830ET and follows prior annual revisions that don’t show on the Bloomberg calendar.
  • Total employment growth is seen at 15k after 69k in Dec (initial 104k) and a Q4 average of 55k (initial 74k).
  • The u/e rate is seen increasing a tenth to 5.1% from 5.0% (similar downward revisions to the labour force left the u/e unrevised), still close to series lows of 4.9% from the summer.
  • Hourly wage growth for permanent employees is seen slowing from 5.2% to 4.4% Y/Y in January. It’s not the same measure but all employee hourly wage growth was revised down to 4.8% Y/Y in Dec (initial 5.1%) and averaged 5.0% Y/Y through 2H22 (initial 5.4%).

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