John D. Herrmann, Director/rates....>

US DATA PREVIEW: John D. Herrmann, Director/rates strategist at MUFG Securities

Americas estimates +.3% M/M for this morning's Jan CPI, "but risk towards +0.4%"

M/M. "Basically, nearly ALL components of the CPI index appear set to increase

more than their 4-month average gain, with the exception of communication costs

and possibly health care/medical care costs." Herrmann said. "Most of these

January pricing increases are "New Year" pricing increases - meaning that they

are 'transitory,' and typically they are discounted away over the coming

two-to-three months." Herrmann suspects more "mixed" results from retail sales,

"after a very strong pace of retail; spending over the prior FOUR months of

September-October-November-December, our models point to risk of a softer

January report."