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Johnson Faces PMQs At Midday, Gray Report Puts Further Pressure On Gov't


Prime Minister Boris Johnson faces PMQs at midday, after which he is set to deliver a statement to the House of Commons regarding the report from civil servant Sue Gray that outlines rule-breaking by politicians, civil servants, and political officials at Downing St and Whitehall during the 2020 COVID-19 lockdowns.

  • Gov't has confirmed that the Gray report has been delivered to No.10. Set to be published for public viewing later today.
  • Johnson is also set to deliver a press conference and speak to Conservative MPs later today after his duties in the Commons.
  • Betting markets show a <50% implied probability that Johnson remains in office until 2024 or later. The implied probability of him leaving office in 2022 has risen from 20.0% on 21 May to 36.5% at the time of writing.
  • Unclear whether the report will be enough to force Conservative MPs hands. 15% of Conservative MPs (54 MPs) are required to call for a leadership contest. A confidence vote is then held and if the PM recieves under 50% support (179 MPs) then he cannot stand in the subsequent leadership election. If he recieves over 50% support, another leadership contest cannot be launched for 12 months.
  • Commons livestream:
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Year of PM Johnson's Exit from Office, %

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