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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
UK
Prime Minister Boris Johnson faces PMQs at midday, after which he is set to deliver a statement to the House of Commons regarding the report from civil servant Sue Gray that outlines rule-breaking by politicians, civil servants, and political officials at Downing St and Whitehall during the 2020 COVID-19 lockdowns.
- Gov't has confirmed that the Gray report has been delivered to No.10. Set to be published for public viewing later today.
- Johnson is also set to deliver a press conference and speak to Conservative MPs later today after his duties in the Commons.
- Betting markets show a <50% implied probability that Johnson remains in office until 2024 or later. The implied probability of him leaving office in 2022 has risen from 20.0% on 21 May to 36.5% at the time of writing.
- Unclear whether the report will be enough to force Conservative MPs hands. 15% of Conservative MPs (54 MPs) are required to call for a leadership contest. A confidence vote is then held and if the PM recieves under 50% support (179 MPs) then he cannot stand in the subsequent leadership election. If he recieves over 50% support, another leadership contest cannot be launched for 12 months.
- Commons livestream: https://www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/1e13fb4f...
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Year of PM Johnson's Exit from Office, %
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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