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JOLTS Mixed But Still Points To Overall Jobs Market Tightness

US DATA

The April JOLTS report was mixed. Openings pointed to an unexpected tightening in the labor market: whereas a decline in job openings to 9,400k from 9,590k in March had been expected, we got a rise to a 3-month high 10,103k from an upwardly revised 9,745k. That was the first M/M since December 2022.

  • The ratio of job openings to the number of unemployed people also hit a 3-month high of 1.78 (was 1.67 in March).
  • On the other hand the quits rate paints a slightly looser labor market picture vs prior: the overall rate dropped to the lowest since Feb 2021 at 2.4% (from 2.5% in March) overall quits rate was 2.4%, private quits rate was steady at 2.7%,
  • Total separations and layoffs/discharges decreased; hires rose.
  • Overall this report is reflective of a labor market that doesn't remain as tight as it did in late 2021/early 2022 - but it may not be cooling quickly enough for the Fed's comfort.
  • While this report is based on developments in April, it sets the stage for Friday's May payrolls report which could help tip the balance toward a hike (or not) at the June FOMC meeting.

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