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JOLTS Report Provides One Of Fed Bullard's Labor Tightness Metrics

US DATA

In shrugging off the weak April jobs report (and seeing more job creation momentum later in the year), St Louis Fed Pres Bullard in an MNI interview published late Monday remarked "Labor markets are tight. If you look at the unemployment-to-vacancies ratio it's one of the lowest readings we've seen and approaching the lows of the previous expansion."

  • Bullard appears to be referring to the BLS metric "Number of unemployed persons per job opening" from the JOLTS release (see chart below), which is a metric of "substantial further progress" that is worth watching over the coming months.
  • At 1.2 unemployed persons per each opening (on a seasonally-adjusted basis) in April, we're back at the March 2020 level and well off the 5.0 ratio in April 2020.
  • However, when compared with the 0.8 low (last seen Feb 2020), labor markets are not as "tight" now as they were pre-pandemic, per Bullard's metric.


SOURCE: BLS

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