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JP Morgan Believe Inflation Data Support Their Call For October Cut

NBP

JP Morgan write that the failure of headline CPI inflation to ease below +10.0% Y/Y supports their call for the NBP to stay on hold in September, before cutting rates later in October.

  • They see no major surprises in today's release and estimate that core inflation may have cooled to +10.0% Y/Y.
  • In their view, "momentum-wise, today's data interrupts a sequence of increasingly lower prints in the last five months, and suggests some stagnation around +5% pace."
  • They note that CPI printed at +10.1% Y/Y, supporting their call for no interest rate action at the MPC meeting next week.
  • However, "given how fluid the argumentation is, and how irrelevant the difference between +10.1% and +9.9%, September will be live anyway, until the Governor says otherwise."
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