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JP Morgan: CBR Rhetoric More Hawkish Than Anticipated

RUSSIA
  • The CBR’s rhetoric turned slightly more hawkish, and more hawkish than JPM had anticipated. Although there was broad consensus about the decision at the board, a more hawkish signal for upcoming meetings (possibility of hikes) was debated at the meeting.
  • JPM continue to differ with the CBR in their inflation assessments and continue to expect inflation to slow below 5% by end-23 (CBR: 5-7%), hence still think that at some point closer to mid-year the CBR will adopt a more dovish stance, cutting rates slightly to 7.0% from 7.5% in 2Q-3Q23.
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