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JP Morgan Expect Banxico Minutes To Guide For March Rate Cut

MEXICO
  • After turning more dovish at its Feb 8 MPC meeting, JP Morgan expect the Banxico minutes, out on Thursday, will elaborate on the appropriate time to cut rates. In their view, the previous emphasis on “disinflation gains” and “passive tightening” suggests that most members are ready to start easing policy at the next meeting, in March.
  • Nonetheless, JP Morgan expect the minutes to be clear that Banxico will remain cautious and that even if a majority are open to a March cut, the vigilant stance will keep all options open for the following meetings, at least in May and probably June. Most members have indicated caution given non-linearities in price-formation and risks related to geopolitical events and weather conditions.
  • JPM also expect the board to elaborate on recent growth disappointments. As demand pressures abate, they anticipate Banxico will shift to a more neutral stance later in the year, allowing a more consistent pace of easing to 9.75% through H2. JPM do not expect hawkish dissenters to the tone of the statement. But if Banxico does cut in March, a non-unanimous decision should not be a surprise, in their view.
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