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JP Morgan Expect the CBR to Remain on Hold Through the Year

RUSSIA
  • JP Morgan say the tone of the CBR policy statement and other commentaries softened a little, but the hawkish bias with respect to the outlook was preserved. Aside from updated macro forecasts, the meeting was largely uneventful, they say.
  • The CBR’s updated macro forecasts imply a policy rate increase to 8.0% in 2H23, while the statement kept the door open for hikes at upcoming meetings. However, JP Morgan doubt inflation will allow the CBR to pull the trigger, but board leanings are obvious, they say.
  • JP Morgan therefore continue to expect the CBR to remain on hold through the year.
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