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JP Morgan Holds Firm on $86/bbl Brent End of Year

OIL

JP Morgan maintains its Brent year end price target of $86/bbl despite higher geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

  • “Near-term supply-demand balance and the resulting change in oil inventories remain the main fundamental drivers of our oil price forecast, not geopolitics.” JP Morgan said in its client note.
  • The bank notes no current impact on crude production from the attacks on Israel at the weekend but notes the risks for Iranian flows if the US more heavily enforces sanctions. JP Morgan however believes the US will steer clear of measures that will restrict Iranian barrels onto the market.
  • On the current optimism around a further easing of sanctions between the US and Venezuela, JP morgan said it “would help boost Venezuelan oil production by around 200 kbd within 4-6 months, from 0.8 mbd currently to 1.0 mbd by 1Q24.”
  • It forecasts Brent to average $83/bbl in 2024.
Energy BulletsCommodities
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