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JP Morgan Maintain 80$/bbl Forecast Amid Robust Demand

OIL

JP Morgan maintain a Brent crude forecast of 80$/bbl as long-term demand is set to remain strong and the “supercycle thesis remains intact.”

  • Short term global oil demand remains robust despite recession concerns and has been met with stronger-than-expected supply. The market is expected to remain balanced in H1 2024.
  • The potential upside price risk is up to 100$/bbl with the lower range at 70$/bbl.
  • As non-OPEC supply sources mature the OPEC+ group will eventually have the chance to reclaim market share and use spare capacity.
  • Any reversal of the Saudi Arabia voluntary 1mb/d cut would reflect demand strength rather than internal OPEC+ tensions.

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