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JP Morgan on Italian politics

ITALY
  • "Our forecast anticipates lingering political uncertainty - in turn connected to policy risk on the reform and fiscal front - even after the formation of the new government, which under our baseline is a right wing BoI-led administration."
  • "Our base case remains that eventually the new government will not opt for a conflictual approach with the EC or markets, and will instead be careful in nurturing the impressive legacy of PM Draghi. But, the road to get there might well remain bumpy for a while, including during an electoral campaign when some right-wing parties may engage in the traditional game of competing on the basis of untenable fiscal promises."
  • "The most important factor in gauging the behavior of the future administration will be the announcement of the ministers in the government. If the choice for the key roles (Treasury, Foreign affairs, Energy, Defence, Labour) were to fall on figures with recognized domestic and/or international credibility, selected also outside of the party ranks, this would sharply affect perceptions about the credibility and ability to deliver of the new administration."
  • "In terms of timeline, it is reasonable to expect that most of August, traditionally a holiday month, will be relatively quiet as parties work out their programs and alliances. The electoral campaign will likely hit up in its last four weeks."
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