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JP Morgan push back first BOE hike to February

BOE
  • JP Morgan updated its BOE call yesterday, pushing back its expectation of the first hike from the BOE to February from December "buying more time to assess the threat from Omicron".
  • "The Saunders comments last Friday were the most significant... While he may continue to vote for a rate rise next week, any hesitation he now has could be greater among members who have been less certain about the need for an immediate tightening in monetary policy"
  • "It appears there will still be enough uncertainty going into the December meeting to persuade a majority to delay a rate rise until early next year – although the outcome looks close."
  • "Our base case is that the downside risks related to Omicron will fade early next year with the economic impact remaining small and temporary. We hence assume the BoE will begin raising rates in February with a 15bp rise."
  • "We are keeping the same forecast for the policy rate to reach 0.75% by the end of next year. This implies a somewhat faster pace of tightening in 2022 than before. After a 15bp February rate rise, we assume rates will rise 25bps in May and November"
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