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ARGENTINA: JP Morgan Says Government Can Secure Market Access By H2

ARGENTINA
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News
  • JP Morgan keeps an OW to Argentina in the EMBIGD model portfolio, given the identifiable positive catalysts that they expect to materialise throughout the year. The effort to stabilise the macro economy is panning out. Inflation is trending down amid a front-loaded fiscal adjustment, real activity has started to recover strongly, the real exchange rate has appreciated, and political support for the administration remains high.
    • Current conditions seem ideal to push ahead with the evolution of the policy framework. The ongoing negotiation with the IMF can pave the way to the gradual release of capital controls in JPM’s view.
    • They believe that $10-$12bn of IMF support looks feasible, aimed at elevating the stock of reserves. The success of the Milei administration owes to the president’s clear prioritisation of economic decisions over political comfort, in their view.
    • Given their macro outlook that the time is ripe for a gradual removal of capital controls, JPM thinks that Argentina is well positioned to secure market access by the second half of this year.
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  • JP Morgan keeps an OW to Argentina in the EMBIGD model portfolio, given the identifiable positive catalysts that they expect to materialise throughout the year. The effort to stabilise the macro economy is panning out. Inflation is trending down amid a front-loaded fiscal adjustment, real activity has started to recover strongly, the real exchange rate has appreciated, and political support for the administration remains high.
    • Current conditions seem ideal to push ahead with the evolution of the policy framework. The ongoing negotiation with the IMF can pave the way to the gradual release of capital controls in JPM’s view.
    • They believe that $10-$12bn of IMF support looks feasible, aimed at elevating the stock of reserves. The success of the Milei administration owes to the president’s clear prioritisation of economic decisions over political comfort, in their view.
    • Given their macro outlook that the time is ripe for a gradual removal of capital controls, JPM thinks that Argentina is well positioned to secure market access by the second half of this year.