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JP Strat's on bbg with an against consensus view that we will see another record supply month

CREDIT MACRO
  • They point to M&A (they see $54b of unfunded announcements) & refi costs that are attractive for issuers (-120bps lower in $IG & -110bps lower in €IG from last yr's October highs).
  • Counter analyst views on above have pointed to record Jan/Feb issuance bringing supply forward and noting 2020-22 March supply (on lower rates) skews avg's higher.
  • Consensus is for $130b this month (-$70b MoM & +$30b YoY), which is in line with the pre-2020 5yr average.

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