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JPM: Above Consensus For CPI With Continued Rent Strength

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • JPMorgan see core CPI inflation at 0.34% M/M (cons 0.3), which sees the Y/Y rate ease three tenths to 5.7% Y/Y.
  • They expect continued firmness in CPI rent measures: industry data point to some eventual moderation in these measures but they see the CPI continuing to post solid M/M growth in Dec, with rents 0.72% and OER +0.66%.
  • However, they expect softer monthly changes for many of the other main core components, including medical care prices (-0.5%), used vehicle prices with a smaller decline than Nov but still -0.7%, new vehicle prices (-0.1%) and public transportation.
  • Headline seen basically unchanged M/M, allowing the annual rate to ease from 7.1% to 6.5% Y/Y, weighed primarily by energy prices falling more than 5% M/M.
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