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JPM Below Consensus For Core CPI

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • JPMorgan estimate core CPI at 0.15% M/M in August (cons median 0.2, av 0.23), similar to what was reported for June and July with pretty similar changes in the main underlying components.
  • Very generally, they expect firm readings related to rental inflation but softness in most other categories. They see the trend for rental inflation as moderating over time, but still expect solid gains for the August data, with 0.43% increases on both tenants’ rent and owners’ equivalent rent.
  • They also expect additional declines in some travel-related measures, with lodging prices down another 0.4% in August and public transportation prices falling another 4.0%. Within public transportation, airfares fell again with some partial offset from increased prices for mass transit in and around NY City.
  • On the goods side, used vehicle prices are seen declining for the third straight month in August (-2%) along with a continued flattish trend for new vehicle prices.
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