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JPM: Below Consensus For NFP But A Still Tight Labor Market

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • JPMorgan look for NFP growth of 150k in May (cons 190k), suggesting the labor market remains tight even as some further signs of cooling appear.
  • Other signs of cooling include declines in vacancies and quits in the JOLTS data and increases in WARN notifications, plus employment of temporary workers turning increasingly negative during the prior three months. However, the recent pickup in initial jobless claims was revised back down as Massachusetts removed fraudulent filings.
  • They see the private sector adding 130k jobs (cons 173k), primarily in services. Recent stabilization in housing and relatively supportive employment indicators in the May flash PMI suggest modest gains continued in the goods sector as well.
  • AHE seen rising 0.4% M/M (cons 0.3) given the still-tight labor market, and the average workweek to hold steady 34.4hrs for the third straight month. Other measures of wage growth have peaked but remain above AHE.
  • A solid household survey is expected to show the u/e rate also steady at 3.4% (cons 3.5) even though they expect the participation rate to have edge up slightly to a cycle high of 62.6%.
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