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JPM Broadly In Line For Payrolls

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • JPMorgan see nonfarm payrolls growth of 175k in January (cons 190k). A variety of indicators suggest continued strength/ tightness, including very low initial claims in recent weeks and the more lagging job openings remaining high. But there are also signs of cooling job growth in a continuation of some moderation in December, including the workweek moving down lately and temp help employment also weakening.
  • AHE seen with a solid but moderating trend at 0.3% M/M for 4.3% Y/Y.
  • With average weekly hours seen holding at 34.3, aggregate hours worked are seen rising 0.1% M/M.
  • For the household survey, the u/e rate is seen at 3.5%, participation rate at 62.3%, and the employment-population ratio at 60.1% -- unchanged between December and January after rounding.
  • Revisions: It will contain the annual benchmark revision to the establishment survey which should boost the March 2022 level of employment by 462k (0.3%) according to the preliminary announcement. The establishment survey’s seasonal factors also will be updated. The household survey will incorporate updated population controls, making its data starting in Jan’23 not directly comparable with earlier periods.
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