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JPM Call Change After BOC

CANADA
  • JPM adjust their policy rate forecast to account for more hikes being needed to return to the newly upward revised neutral range of 2-3%.
  • They now see two 50bp hikes in June and July (previously just June) before reverting to 25bps in Sep and Oct for an end-2022 rate of 2.5% (from 2.25%).
  • They then see further hikes to 3.25% by end-2023 (from 2.75% by mid-2023) after hawkish remarks from Gov Macklem and Senior Dep Gov Rogers during the presser suggesting the Bank sees growing risks that policy will need to be above neutral for a time.
  • The Bank has revised its inflation outlook substantially higher but JPM think it will still be surprised to the upside.
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