JPM econ Daniel Silver saw "some......>

US DATA REACT: JPM econ Daniel Silver saw "some upside risk to our 2.5% saar 4Q

real GDP forecast following the Nov. advance economic indicators report" tho

"surprises" in "advance data on trade and inventories were modest" vs. "our

forecasts and largely offsetting (there were larger misses relative to consensus

expectations). The data related to trade and equipment spending were slightly

disappointing, while the data on inventories were firmer than expectations."

- He noted "nominal gds balance widened from -$68.1bn in Oct. to -$69.7bn in

Nov, with strong growth in both exports (3%) and imports (2.7%). This widening

in the deficit came after significant widening between Sept and Oct ($4.1bn),

and our mapping of the nominal data into volume terms signals" real goods

deficit "widened in both months" too." He says "net exports will subtract about

a full percentage pt from GDP growth during the qtr. The data on trade in

capital goods also had slightly negative implications for our estimate of 4Q

equipmt spending. But even with this disappointment, 4Q real equipmt spending

growth still looks robust (18% saar);" and "nominal wholesale inventories

increased 0.7% in Nov while retail inventories ticked up 0.1%."