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JPM: Larger Rate Hikes, Earlier B/S Runoff

CANADA
  • JPM yesterday upped their rate call to 6 hikes in 2022 (from 5), seeing consecutive 25bp hikes starting in March up to and including October compared to previously expecting a pause in June.
  • “We do not expect a 50bp policy rate hike in March, despite market expectations”.
  • Balance sheet runoff is seen starting at the April meeting, having previously expected 2H22, in part after “Dep Gov Lane signaled as much in remarks last week”.
  • They see “significant risk” that the BOC could act assertively by announcing runoff will begin in March but it is more likely to signal in March that it will begin in April.
  • They also see 4 hikes in 2023 (from 3), taking the policy rate to “end 2023 at 2.75%; the Bank’s estimate of the range for the nominal neutral rate is 1.75% to 2.75%”.
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