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JPM Nudge 10-Year Tsy Yield & Breakeven Forecasts Higher


Late on Friday J.P.Morgan noted that "given expectations of a larger stimulus package and better growth outturns in 2021 and 2022, we adjust our mid-year target for 10-Year Tsy yields by 25bp to 1.50% and our YE target by 20bp to 1.65%. We also revise up our TIPS breakeven targets and now look for 5- and 10-year breakevens to end the year at 240bp and 235bp, respectively, up from 225bp and 225bp previously We now forecast $3.056tn in net-privately held borrowing of Tsys in 2021, an increase of approximately $600bn versus our prior forecasts. Our gross coupon supply estimates are unchanged, while we now project $269bn of net privately held borrowing in T-bills this year."

MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |

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