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JPM on NBH 1W Depo Rate

HUNGARY
  • The National Bank of Hungary has raised the 1-week depo rate by 30bps to 4.3%,. as expected.
  • Whatever happens to the Forint in the coming weeks/months will likely determine the pace of 1-week depo rate increases, so effectively, the near-term policy view is almost a call on FX.
  • Given deep twin deficits, which will linger until election at least, negative real rates, background of tighter DM policy, massive excess liquidity in the banking system, political risk and muted credit channel, JPM thinks a smooth path for rate increases is unlikely.
  • Instead, we see the depo reaching 5.5% by March, with risks skewed for more.
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