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JPM: Softer On Payrolls But U/E Rate Seen Beating

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
HomepageBulletMarketsFixed Income NewsForeign Exchange News
  • JPM see payroll growth of 150k in Nov (cons. 200k), expecting the moderation to continue as have seen a variety of different labour market indicators soften in recent months
  • There also have been a variety of news reports related to layoffs in recent weeks, and while layoffs have not increased in a big way according to the main related indicators that we track yet, we think news of layoffs is suggestive of a cooling labor market.
  • AHE seen rising 0.3% M/M and 4.6% Y/Y as labour market conditions remain fairly tight, along with the work week holding steady to push aggregate hours up 0.1% M/M.
  • However, despite the below consensus view on payrolls growth, they see the u/e rate falling a tenth to 3.6% (cons. 3.7%) as household employment bounces, with participation and employment-population rates unchanged.
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  • JPM see payroll growth of 150k in Nov (cons. 200k), expecting the moderation to continue as have seen a variety of different labour market indicators soften in recent months
  • There also have been a variety of news reports related to layoffs in recent weeks, and while layoffs have not increased in a big way according to the main related indicators that we track yet, we think news of layoffs is suggestive of a cooling labor market.
  • AHE seen rising 0.3% M/M and 4.6% Y/Y as labour market conditions remain fairly tight, along with the work week holding steady to push aggregate hours up 0.1% M/M.
  • However, despite the below consensus view on payrolls growth, they see the u/e rate falling a tenth to 3.6% (cons. 3.7%) as household employment bounces, with participation and employment-population rates unchanged.