Free Trial
BOK

VIEW: Faltering Growth Engines

STIR

SFRH3 Lifted

NZD

Pressured, Mild Risk-Off Flows Observed

BOJ

Fixed Rate Purchase Offer

Real-time Actionable Insight

Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.

Free Access

JPM: Softer On Payrolls But U/E Rate Seen Beating

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • JPM see payroll growth of 150k in Nov (cons. 200k), expecting the moderation to continue as have seen a variety of different labour market indicators soften in recent months
  • There also have been a variety of news reports related to layoffs in recent weeks, and while layoffs have not increased in a big way according to the main related indicators that we track yet, we think news of layoffs is suggestive of a cooling labor market.
  • AHE seen rising 0.3% M/M and 4.6% Y/Y as labour market conditions remain fairly tight, along with the work week holding steady to push aggregate hours up 0.1% M/M.
  • However, despite the below consensus view on payrolls growth, they see the u/e rate falling a tenth to 3.6% (cons. 3.7%) as household employment bounces, with participation and employment-population rates unchanged.
136 words

To read the full story

Why Subscribe to

MarketNews.com

MNI is the leading provider

of news and intelligence specifically for the Global Foreign Exchange and Fixed Income Markets, providing timely, relevant, and critical insight for market professionals and those who want to make informed investment decisions. We offer not simply news, but news analysis, linking breaking news to the effects on capital markets. Our exclusive information and intelligence moves markets.

Our credibility

for delivering mission-critical information has been built over three decades. The quality and experience of MNI's team of analysts and reporters across America, Asia and Europe truly sets us apart. Our Markets team includes former fixed-income specialists, currency traders, economists and strategists, who are able to combine expertise on macro economics, financial markets, and political risk to give a comprehensive and holistic insight on global markets.
  • JPM see payroll growth of 150k in Nov (cons. 200k), expecting the moderation to continue as have seen a variety of different labour market indicators soften in recent months
  • There also have been a variety of news reports related to layoffs in recent weeks, and while layoffs have not increased in a big way according to the main related indicators that we track yet, we think news of layoffs is suggestive of a cooling labor market.
  • AHE seen rising 0.3% M/M and 4.6% Y/Y as labour market conditions remain fairly tight, along with the work week holding steady to push aggregate hours up 0.1% M/M.
  • However, despite the below consensus view on payrolls growth, they see the u/e rate falling a tenth to 3.6% (cons. 3.7%) as household employment bounces, with participation and employment-population rates unchanged.