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CANADA: JPM: Traditional Core Expected To Show First Increase Since December

CANADA
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  • JPMorgan see headline CPI accelerating to 2.1% Y/Y in December, helped by "an unusually modest decline in December prices at the pump and stability in energy prices overall."
  • They project core CPI (CPIxFE) increased a tenth to 2.0% Y/Y in December, its first increase since September but keeping a downward trajectory “relatively intact”.
  • “Goods inflation moved sideways in November and looks to have stabilized after a few months of negative growth in the year-ago rate, while services prices are gradually cooling but remain elevated.”
  • “Growth in shelter prices dipped below 5.5%oya in November for the first time since mid-2022, but is still driving the stickiness in overall services price gains.”
  • “We expect mortgage interest costs to moderate further following 50bp cuts at each of the last two BoC meetings and 175bp overall since last June.”
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  • JPMorgan see headline CPI accelerating to 2.1% Y/Y in December, helped by "an unusually modest decline in December prices at the pump and stability in energy prices overall."
  • They project core CPI (CPIxFE) increased a tenth to 2.0% Y/Y in December, its first increase since September but keeping a downward trajectory “relatively intact”.
  • “Goods inflation moved sideways in November and looks to have stabilized after a few months of negative growth in the year-ago rate, while services prices are gradually cooling but remain elevated.”
  • “Growth in shelter prices dipped below 5.5%oya in November for the first time since mid-2022, but is still driving the stickiness in overall services price gains.”
  • “We expect mortgage interest costs to moderate further following 50bp cuts at each of the last two BoC meetings and 175bp overall since last June.”