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JPM: Widespread Strength Behind CPI Increase

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
JP Morgan note the widespread support behind the strong CPI print and see a robust core PCE inflation print in two weeks.
  • Core CPI was boosted by new and used vehicles, a sector that has surged lately on supply chain issues although could move lower at some point if production (and inventories) normalize."
  • There were however "solid price increases for many other categories in the October CPI, including large jumps in the main rent measures that could continue to climb if the signal from related industry figures is correct".
  • Other categories with large October price increases included lodging away from home (+1.4% M/M), medical care (+0.5%), household furnishings & operations (+0.8%), and tobacco (1.9%), following mixed broader trends.
  • JP Morgan look for core PCE inflation to be up about +0.47% M/M in October, pushing the annual rate up to +4.1% Y/Y.
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